About RiskLens
RiskLens is a risk literacy tool that translates common activities into plain-English comparisons so you can make better decisions without overreacting.
What is a micromort?
A micromort is a unit of risk equal to a one-in-a-million probability of death. The concept was introduced to help people compare risks that are otherwise difficult to intuit.
For example, driving 30 miles by car might carry a very small micromort estimate based on population averages. Flying a commercial flight carries a different estimate. Comparing these as micromorts helps put them in perspective relative to each other.
When micromorts are useful
- Comparing different activities on a common scale
- Understanding the relative size of everyday risks
- Educational discussions about risk literacy
- Putting rare dramatic events in perspective against common ones
When micromorts are not useful
- Predicting your personal risk
- Making medical, legal, or insurance decisions
- Activities where individual factors dominate population averages
- Long-term chronic risks, which are better measured in microlives
Why RiskLens uses confidence levels
Risk estimates vary in quality. Some come from well-established official statistics. Others are rough estimates from older or context-dependent studies. RiskLens labels every activity with a confidence level so you can judge the data yourself.
- High: Strong official statistics or well-established peer-reviewed sources.
- Medium: Credible research that requires some assumptions or context.
- Low: Rough, old, or highly context-dependent estimates included for educational purposes.
Why estimates vary
Risk depends on many factors: geography, individual behavior, time period, equipment, health, and more. Population-level averages hide enormous variation. RiskLens shows estimates alongside their assumptions and limitations so users can understand where the numbers come from.
What RiskLens does not do
- Provide medical, legal, financial, or safety advice
- Predict your personal risk
- Recommend whether to do or avoid any activity
- Use AI to generate risk values — all values come from sourced data
- Track users or store personal information