Sports and recreation
Mount Everest summit attempt
Estimated population-level acute risk associated with a single Mount Everest summit attempt.
Base risk estimate
7000 micromorts per attempts
Population-level estimate. Not a personal prediction.
Assumptions
Based on modern-era (post-2000) summit attempts, the majority with commercial guiding support and supplemental oxygen, via the South Col or North Ridge routes.
Limitations
Death rate varies significantly by era, guiding support, supplemental oxygen use, season, and route. Pre-2000 rates were substantially higher (1.3–4%+). Attempts without supplemental oxygen carry far higher risk. The denominator counts registered climbers, not summit bids.
Source notes
The Himalayan Database (compiled by Elizabeth Hawley and Richard Salisbury) is the authoritative record of Himalayan expeditions since the 1950s. Firth PG et al. (BMJ 2008, PMID 19015186) analyzed 14,138 climbers across 8000m peaks; Everest historical death rate ~1.3% per expedition member. Modern era (2015–2025) death rate is approximately 0.69% per summit attempt = 6,900 micromorts; rounded to 7,000.
Last reviewed
5/31/2024