Transportation
Commercial flight
Estimated population-level acute risk associated with taking a commercial passenger flight.
Base risk estimate
0.07 micromorts per flights
Population-level estimate. Not a personal prediction.
Assumptions
Assumes commercial scheduled aviation operated by an IATA member airline under modern safety standards. Covers a typical short- to medium-haul flight.
Limitations
Risk varies substantially by airline, country, aircraft type, and year. Rare catastrophic accidents skew per-year statistics significantly. Long-haul and short-haul risks may differ. Does not apply to general aviation or charter operations.
Source notes
Based on IATA published accident and fatality statistics for commercial scheduled aviation covering 2022 IATA member airlines. Per-flight risk is estimated from published accident rates for developed-world aviation and is consistent with estimates in Spiegelhalter D, The Norm Chronicles (2013).
Last reviewed
5/31/2024