Sports and recreation
Outdoor rock climbing
Estimated population-level acute risk associated with outdoor sport or traditional rock climbing.
Base risk estimate
0.35 micromorts per hours
Population-level estimate. Not a personal prediction.
Assumptions
Assumes outdoor sport or trad climbing with appropriate gear and a partner belay. AAC data covers all outdoor climbing including mountaineering; the per-hour rate may overstate risk for lower-altitude sport climbing.
Limitations
Exposure (climbing hours nationally) is estimated, not measured. AAC data includes mountaineering and ice climbing alongside rock climbing. Annual variation is significant. Risk varies greatly by climb grade, rock type, protection quality, experience, and weather.
Source notes
Based on AAC ANAC data (2022–2023: approximately 42–51 US fatalities/year from climbing and mountaineering). Derived by dividing estimated annual fatalities by estimated national climbing exposure (approximately 5–7 million outdoor climbers × ~15 hours/year outdoor climbing = ~75–100 million hours). Rate approximately 0.3–0.5 micromorts/hour; using 0.35 as a central estimate.
Last reviewed
5/31/2024